The price of Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude oil, fell by 5.09% on April 9, 2025, dropping to $59.62 per barrel. This decline is primarily linked to the economic disruptions triggered by the tariff hikes introduced by the United States earlier this week.
Furthermore, OPEC and its allies’ recent decision to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting May 2025 has further contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.
Experts are sounding alarms about the impact of this price drop on Nigeria’s 2025 revenue targets. The country’s budget was based on an oil price projection of $75 per barrel and a daily production target of 2.06 million barrels.
As of February 2025, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported an output, including condensates, of 1.67 million bpd, far below the expected target.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), expressed concern in an interview with Vanguard: “This is a serious issue. We’ve just completed the first quarter, with three more to go. If this situation continues, it could have severe economic implications.”
Yusuf emphasized that low oil prices not only threaten government revenue but also put pressure on the nation’s exchange rate, given the heavy dependence on oil exports for foreign exchange earnings.
On a brighter note, the drop in crude oil prices could benefit consumers. According to Vanguard’s findings, Nigeria’s downstream sector is poised to reduce the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol.
Ehimen Joseph, Chairman of the Lagos State Chapter of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), noted, “In a deregulated market, a sustained fall in crude oil prices would lead to lower costs throughout the value chain.”
An anonymous industry source revealed that fuel prices could be reduced within the week. “One of the country’s refineries has stopped issuing petrol tickets, and a price review is expected before Tuesday. Those who have prepaid for the program may get discounts,” the source said. This potential price adjustment is directly tied to the global drop in crude oil prices, which began after OPEC+ announced the production increase.
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